After the 14th general election (GE14), five Upko seats changed hands to end the two-day rule of chief minister Musa Aman. The keys to the government passed to Warisan president Shafie Apdal.
In July, 13 of the elected reps performed a U-turn by pledging support to Musa, leading Shafie to advise the Yang di-Pertua Negeri to dissolve the state assembly and triggering snap elections.
Lee Kuok Tiung, a political analyst at Universiti Malaysia Sabah, told FMT that while he doesn’t expect the “tsunami” of defections seen in 2018, he thinks that both coalitions should aim to secure a wide margin of victory to be protected from elected reps jumping parties.
“I think the minimum is 45,” he said, “Sabah has 73 seats, so a party would need 37 to obtain a simple majority.
“I don’t believe any coalition can get a two-thirds majority; not possible. This time, the fight for seats is neck and neck. It’s very tough this time.”
Lee believed that even a day away from the polls, almost all of the seats remained up in the air.
“The only thing we can be sure of is that Semporna will be won by Warisan. Aside from that, it’s equal opportunity for all.”
Awang Azman Pawi, an analyst at Universiti Malaya, agreed that victory this time will be by a razor-thin margin and said the parties would need “a difference of five to 10 seats” to ensure stability.
“How much the candidates can please their voters and their relationship with their constituents … that will be the formula for success in this election.”
When asked which party should feel most threatened by potential defections, Azman was quick to reply: “Warisan.”
Lee warned that Warisan’s use of “katak” and “bohangjut” (referring to political “frogs” and “toads” in Malay and Kadazan Dusun respectively) may be unwise given the party’s history.
“We have to remember that if not for all these ‘katak’, Warisan would not have formed the state government and Shafie wouldn’t be chief minister now.”
Citing in particular a recent frog barbeque attended by Warisan candidates and supporters, Lee said “it’s very childish and could very easily backfire”.
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