University professor William Case, speaking at a forum at Universiti Malaya, said although Pakatan Harapan won the general election, it was still Umno and PAS that won the majority of the Malay vote.
“Let’s not forget that Pakatan Harapan only won about 30% of the Malay vote in the recent election and it was Barisan Nasional and PAS who won 70%,” he said.
While there was a large enough swing among the Malays, it was also important to remember the dynamics that were at play from the previous election of 2013, where Malays voted for BN out of fear of the Chinese community voting en masse for Pakatan Rakyat.
“This may not have happened in GE14 but there is still a possibility that we will see the same thing happening in GE15,” he said, referring to the next general election, which would be due in five years.
Case said the Malay electoral base could be a motivating factor for Umno to become increasingly racial in its politics and rhetoric.
“Umno may decide to energise voters through more exclusionary appeals to Malay-Muslims. It could also coalesce with PAS and unleash a ‘right wing’ populism.”
He said this was one of the threats to Malaysia’s new democracy.
The idea of a new democracy had come about in the euphoria created by Pakatan Harapan’s election victory, in the belief that democracy had finally been realised, after 60 years of Barisan Nasional administration.
Even before the election, activists, pundits and politicans had questioned whether democracy had been realised so long as Malaysia had changed the government.
Case said there were reasons for thinking this new democracy would survive. “The transition process was through a replacement of power yet there was no violence involved,” he said, adding that it was rare to see a replacement in government done peacefully.
“Security officers also respected the outcome and turnover of government.”
He said PH had also shown to be broadly accommadative with Anwar Ibrahim bowing to Prime Minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad and avoiding fragmentation as well as Umno’s move to accept defeat and take up the role of the opposition.
‘Umno, PAS unlikely to work together due to differing policies’