The warning by Universiti Tun Abdul Razak economist Barjoyai Bardai followed a report in the New Straits Times which quoted the Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA) as forecasting that car sales would improve compared to last year.

Malaysia was one of three countries in Southeast Asia that saw a drop in total industry volume (TIV) sales last year compared to 2016. The other two countries were Brunei and Vietnam.

When asked, MAA president Aishah Ahmad said the association hoped the TIV would recover slightly.

“Hopefully it will recover due to the good economic growth and the introduction of new models,” she said.

Barjoyai, however, said it would be wise for Malaysians to adopt a “wait and see” approach.

“The economy right now is very uncertain,” he said. “Some economists believe that we are headed for a recession while market economists think that we are going to do better in 2018 because of the market trend. Personally, I disagree with the market economists.”

He advised Malaysians to be conservative in their spending and to only put money in safe investments such as trust funds.

“Keep your money safe so that when the real opportunity comes, you can invest.

“When recession comes, you may even have the opportunity to get a house at a more reasonable price. This should be the thought process.”

Barjoyai added that recessions had occurred globally every 10 years or so since 1780.

“This is without fail. In Malaysia, if we look at our record since even before independence, we’ll see that a recession happens every 10 years as well.

“Our last recession was in 2008. This year is the 10th anniversary. We are going to have a recession, it doesn’t matter how small.”

Barjoyai said how long the recession would last would depend on many things, including luck.

“If we have good luck then the recession will be very brief but the minimum period for a recession is always six months.”