Speaking to FMT, Azizudin Sani of Universiti Utara Malaysia said he saw no indication that Pakatan could topple Kedah Barisan Nasional. However, his counterpart at Universiti Malaya, Awang Azman Pawi, spoke of a “huge wave of support” for Pakatan and said the opposition coalition looked set to win in the state.
Azizudin said BN’s concerns in Kedah were limited to the possible effects of competition among Umno members who are scrambling to be nominated for election.
“If there is no internal sabotage and no infighting, BN will win,” he said. “The PH parties themselves are not united and have their own troubles.”
He said BN was still united in Kedah, but he acknowledged the difficulty of predicting whether the unity would hold after the dissolution of Parliament and state assemblies.
Other observers have been saying that unity in Kedah Umno is often suspect. They note that the 13 Umno divisions in the state came together publicly two years ago to say that they had lost confidence in the then menteri besar, Mukhriz Mahathir. However, they say the story behind the scenes is altogether different, alleging that some leaders are not able to even sit together for a meal.
Azizudin, however, said such disagreements would not have much of an effect on the voting pattern in GE14.
“Previously, I would say, yes, there would be an impact. But today, the state Umno leadership has already managed to overcome this issue. So it is my view that the crisis would have minimal impact on Umno.”
Addressing the issue of Pakatan chairman Mahathir Mohamad’s influence in Kedah, he acknowledged that there was home ground advantage for the former prime minister, but he said it wouldn’t be enough to help the opposition win in the state.
He also said PPBM and Amanah had weak foundations in Kedah.
“These two are still very young parties compared with their PH partners as well to BN component parties,” he said.
“Furthermore, the fact remains that PAS is no longer in the opposition coalition, and PAS is strong in Kedah. The now defunct Pakatan Rakyat election machinery relied on PAS. PH has problems in terms of election machinery.”
Awang Azman said Mukhriz was much loved in Kedah and his sacking caused a lot of anger, triggering a wave of support for the opposition.
He said the threat to BN was “further compounded” by Mahathir’s departure from Umno and his subsequent forming of PPBM and its entry into PH.
“Kedahans feel a sense of state patriotism in favour of Mahathir, a son of Kedah, owing to his 22 years as the country’s prime minister,” he said.
“The former prime minister wields a lot of influence, and this is shaking up the Kedah Umno fortress.
“There is also the fact that Mahathir has been chosen as the prime minister candidate for PH should it take Putrajaya, which would be a source of pride for Kedahans.”
Also working in favour of Pakatan, he said, was the general disaffection caused by the rising cost of living.
He also said he believed PAS was not as popular as PPBM in Kedah.