Asean Today said IS had made no visible move in Myanmar despite the group’s goal of opening a “second front” in Southeast Asia.
“IS factions are not recruiting for any Rakhine missions. According to analysts, IS is not asking its followers to head to the region,” it said.
This is despite recent concern in Malaysia over whether its citizens have entered Myanmar to help the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (Arsa) in its clashes with security forces.
Last month, Bukit Aman anti-terrorism chief Ayob Khan Mydin Pitchay said some Malaysians, supported by IS, were in the midst of waging “jihad” in Myanmar to fight against the government there on behalf of the Rohingya in Rakhine.
He was reported as saying that the Rohingya conflict was being used as the key weapon by IS to influence and recruit new members to engage in terrorism.
He also said Myanmar’s proximity to Malaysia pushed IS militants to act in Rakhine, adding that Myanmar was closer to Malaysia than Syria and the southern Philippines, and was therefore being used as another option for “jihad”.
Asean Today acknowledged that IS had in the past claimed it would set up a base in Bangladesh to fight the Myanmar government on behalf of the Rohingya.
It also noted that as far back as 2014, IS had called Rakhine “a critical region for jihad”.
“However, that was at a time when it was much more active and held more territory in Iraq and Syria than it does today. Now that it has lost its self-proclaimed capital; its priorities may change,” the report said.
It also pointed out that while groups like Al-Qaeda and the Islamic Defenders Front (FPI) have called for action in Myanmar, IS has not.
Arsa itself has explicitly said it does not want assistance from international terrorist groups, it added.
“It seems clear that IS is not pushing to get involved in the region, and Arsa does not want it to.
“Currently, there is no appetite for IS involvement from either side.”
The report warned however that with fighting coming to an end in the southern Philippine city of Marawi, IS could in time shift its focus towards Myanmar.
It added that IS was losing ground in Iraq and Syria, and that it would use the crisis in Rakhine to rally its support base.
“The longer the conflict continues and the more resources Arsa needs, the more likely it is that they call for help from other more established groups with more resources,” it said.
Police looking into possible presence of Malaysian fighters in Myanmar