The PKR vice-president said based on a survey by Invoke covering 3,783 registered voters nationwide, over 60% of voters felt that the country’s economy was on the wrong track, and that the country was worse off compared with four years ago.
“The window to call for the next general election is after the tabling of the 2018 Budget, and that puts a possible date around November. If he does that, he has September and October to fix things.
“However, it is unlikely Najib can conjure up anything in the following two months, even with a people-friendly Budget, that can drastically improve economic sentiments.
“Calling for general election in November would be a very big gamble, and Najib is not known to take big risks.
“That is why, I don’t think the election will be held this year. It will likely be next year,” he said in a press conference here today to announce the survey findings by Invoke.
The interactive interview phone survey, held for a month from June 10 to July 14, focused on the country’s economic environment, cost of living and the rising costs of goods.
Of the 3,783 who took the survey, Malays made up 59%, Chinese (26%), Bumiputeras in Sabah and Sarawak (8%) and Indians (7%).
Among the questions asked were:
- if the people felt the country’s economy was on the right track;
- if the family’s economy was better now as compared with four years ago;
- the percentage of increase in expenditure on food and goods;
- the percentage of increase in monthly utility bills;
- the percentage of increase in the expenditure on prices of petrol and diesel; and
- the percentage of increase in their spending on necessities like clothes, school-related expenses.
Rafizi attributed the low response rate to when the survey was conducted, which was around two weeks before and after Hari Raya Aidilfitri.
The Pandan MP said Najib is battling very pessimistic sentiments against him, as many disgruntled voters are complaining that life is getting harder.
“These people are not influenced by political rhetoric or scandals, but are concerned over the cost of living.
“If Najib improves the economy and is able to change things for the better, you will see the sentiments change.
“The reverse is also applicable. If sentiments remain negative, calling for an election now is a big no-no,” Rafizi said.
He also observed that there was a big disconnect between economic numbers and the true picture, and there were those who deny the correlation between difficulty to make ends meet and the rising prices of goods.
The general sentiment on Najib’s management of the economy was very low, and noted that at a time when economic issues determined which party would be chosen, very negative sentiments were indicative of a general election that will not favour Barisan Nasional.
Rafizi said the Malay voter sentiment satisfied with the economic environment hovered between 40 and 45%, which is in line with the level of support of the Malay voters towards Umno and the percentage of voters who still want Najib to remain prime minister.
“There is a big difference between the official inflation rates announced by the government (2%-3%) and the rise in prices of goods felt by voters, of which a majority feel is over 10%.
“It proves an ever growing gap between what is real and not, and this causes resentment among voters, as they are being deceived,” he added.