According to him, Kedah Umno has been embroiled in internal troubles since PPBM (Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia) came on the scene and Kedah PAS is “not as intact” as it used to be.

“If three parties meet, we won’t be the ones coming out last,” he said.

Dr Azman said his forecast was based on the results of simulations and surveys to assess the different election scenarios and voters’ sentiment in Kedah.

Pundits say more than half of the 36 state and 15 parliamentary constituencies may see three-cornered fights in the coming general election.

Kedah Barisan Nasional recently said it was not afraid of PPBM and that it expected to win the state by a two-third majority. Umno currently holds 18 state seats and MCA two. PAS has eight, PKR four, DAP two and PPBM and Parti Amanah Negara one each.

“From our surveys,” Dr Azman said, “we found there might not be safe seats for PAS any more, although it might have strongholds in Tokai and Sungai Limau.

“PAS and Umno’s politics are still based on religion and race. They are competing in the same voter market.”

He said PAS could either come to its senses and see the risk of standing alone or it could continue to plod on in ignorance.

“It is up to Hadi to decide,” he said, referring to PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang. “In two months or so, PPBM will become stronger and three-cornered fights will favour Pakatan and PPBM.”

He said BN might be hoping that PAS would split the opposition votes like it did in the Sungai Besar and Kuala Kangsar by-elections last year. That would be false hope, he said, especially if BN had not factored in the popularity of PPBM and its chairman, Mahathir Mohamad.

“There was Malay anger during those by-elections, but it didn’t play too prominently. Mahathir’s voice was not so loud then and there was no PPBM yet.”

Kedah DAP chief Tan Kok Yew agreed that three-cornered fights could be good for the opposition alliance.

The Derga assemblyman said Pakatan had opened doors previously shut to it after it started working with PPBM.

“We can now go to places we couldn’t before because they were Umno strongholds,” he said. “Three-cornered fights will benefit us, and it is the reason Umno feels threatened.

“BN is worried. If it wasn’t, it wouldn’t focus so much resources on attacking Mahathir and DAP. It would focus on Malaysia’s economy and development instead.”

PPBM coordinator Anuar Abdul Hamid said his party had been well-received by Kedahans of all ages because they respected both Mahathir and his son Mukhriz, the former menteri besar of the state.

In its membership drive, PPBM had been most successful in Kedah, Anuar said.

He said voter sentiment had been affected by the political turmoil in Kedah which resulted in Mukhriz’s ouster.

“Many are disillusioned. There are Umno and Perkasa supporters shifting their support to Pakatan,” said Dr Azman.

Kedah Amanah election director Phahrolrazi Zawawi said Kedahans, like most Malaysians, were affected by the rising cost of living and the fall of the ringgit.

“Many Kedahans go to Thailand to shop,” he said. “They are feeling the impact of the ringgit drop. A lot of vegetables from Thailand are pricier.”

Azman and Phahrolrazi also said the Pakatan parties had identified the seats they wanted but talks with PPBM were still ongoing.

“We are still in talks; so we can’t give details about the seat arrangements,” he said, adding that Pakatan had worked on the assumption that PAS would not collaborate with it.

Kedah PAS commissioner Ahmad Fakhruddin Syeikh Fakhrurazi told FMT by text message that his party had no political ties with Umno and would not work with BN.

“Umno is PAS’ rival in elections,” he said, “and we don’t have ties with Pakatan, except PKR, that is, if Kedah PKR still wants to have political ties with Kedah PAS.”

He said PAS was open to working with PPBM under its Gagasan Sejahtera coalition. “But whether we form ties with PPBM or not depends on the Syura Council.”

He said his party acknowledged that Mahathir had “his own aura in Kedah politics” and PAS would have to deal with it “with wisdom”.

“PAS has experience going into elections solo and in a bloc. We are ready and capable of facing BN or Pakatan. Our machinery at all levels is ready to face the polls.”

He said Kedah PAS planned to contest in 24 state and eight parliamentary constituencies, adding that this was subject to the central leadership’s approval.