Ilham Centre executive director Mohamad Hisomuddin Bakar and retired Universiti Sains Malaysia professor Ahmad Atory Hussain said BN could not afford to take the opposition lightly.
Hisomuddin said Najib’s visit could mean one of two things – BN was strong or it was in a dangerously weak position.
“There has been a unique Malay voter movement pattern since Ilham started to monitor Amanah and Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia (PPBM),” he told FMT. “The reception for PPBM is quite significant.”
Atory said BN had only a 50-50 chance of keeping Kedah after the next general election. It currently holds 20 of the 36 state seats. PAS has eight seats. The other eight belong to PKR, DAP, Amanah and PPBM.
Atory said many Umno members in Kedah had defected to PPBM, which is led by a local son, former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad.
“If PAS returns to Pakatan, BN will lose,” he declared.
Hisomuddin agreed, saying BN had lost some support in areas where Mahathir is popular, such as Langkawi and Kubang Pasu.
He said Umno could retain Malay support with PAS’ help, but added the cooperation would be bad for the Islamist party.
Both analysts said Mahathir would play a crucial role in the fight for Kedah.
Atory added that the former PM would be welcomed almost anywhere he went to promote his party.
“His contribution to Malaysia cannot be denied, and this is why he is being attacked” by BN, he said.
He described Mahathir as a political creature who was most alive in times of crisis and conflict.
“He has always been like that. At 92, he is still healthy and sharp. You cannot underestimate him.”
Hisomuddin said PPBM was fairly well received wherever the party went in Kedah because people would attend events featuring Mahathir and his son, Mukhriz. “Their appearance can attract 1,000 to 2,000 people in the rural areas.”
He said he spoke to youths at major PPBM events and heard only glowing tributes for Mahathir.
Speaking of Mukhriz, he said the former menteri besar had always been popular and he was the reason BN won Kedah back from the opposition in 2013.
“Young voters in Kedah, namely those in urban areas like Kota Setar, are still angry over his ouster.”
The turnout at PPBM events was something to think about, Hisomuddin said. “They can distribute three to four thousand forms, and get back a thousand at the same event. There is talk that 5,000 from Umno have gone over to PPBM.”
Amanah’s rise
Speaking of PAS, he said the party was strong in Tokai, Bukit Pinang, Anak Bukit and Sungai Limau.
“It is not so strong elsewhere,” he added. “Fence sitters and outstation voters working in Penang, Selangor and Kuala Lumpur, who make up 35% to 40% of the voters, are going to be a determining factor.
“PAS seems to be moving slower than in previous years. It seems to be busier getting ready for its muktamar in April. Perhaps the central leaders are not clear about their stand; so the grassroots can’t start working.”
Atory said Amanah had been gaining support and it was possible for the young party to replace PAS.
He said it was a popular belief that PAS was strong because of the revered Nik Abdul Aziz Mat, its spiritual guide, who died two years ago.
“But Nik Aziz is no longer here. PAS doesn’t have a leader of the same influence. Even in Kelantan, there are issues that can affect PAS support, like the flood disaster and logging.
“If it can happen in the PAS stronghold of Kelantan, it may be possible for PAS to lose some support in Terengganu and Kedah. I’ve heard that PAS forums in Terengganu have not been getting good turnouts.”
Atory also spoke of Pakatan’s chances elsewhere.
“Selangor and Penang are Pakatan’s,” he said, adding that he could not confidently say Perak would be safe for BN if there were Umno members defecting to PPBM.
He also said a swing for Pakatan was possible in Sabah, where “party hopping is common”.
Hisomuddin urged BN to address the rising cost of living, which he said could be a major cause of its downfall.
“There was a standing ovation at the PPBM launch last weekend, when Mahathir said the GST would be abolished if the opposition formed the government,” he noted.
“BN should pay attention to such issues.”