Today marks World Overshoot Day, which is the point in the year when all the resources that the Earth is capable of regenerating in the space of 365 days have been exhausted. As of today, humanity will be living in debt to the planet until the end of 2023.
This tipping point for when the human ecological footprint outweighs the planet’s biocapacity has been calculated each year since 1971 by the Global Footprint Network, an international research organisation.
Overshoot Day used to take place in December when the think-tank first started its calculations, but the date has started falling earlier over the years, eventually ending up in the June-August period by 2010. This year, Overshoot Day falls on Aug 2, and “the trend is flattening but still far from reversing”, says Global Footprint Network in a news release.
Earth Overshoot Day is calculated by dividing the planet’s biocapacity (carbon storage in forests and oceans, sea and land surfaces) by humanity’s ecological footprint (waste production, CO2 emissions, etc.) and multiplying the result by 365 (the number of days in the year) for every country in the world.
Some countries manage to escape this ecological deficit. These are relatively few and far between (around 50), mainly found in Asia, South America and Africa. They include Uruguay, Honduras, Nicaragua, India, the Philippines, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Afghanistan, Syria and Pakistan.
These disparities can be explained by differences in GDP and in the consumption habits of inhabitants, which vary greatly between richer and poorer countries. And when it comes to countries with an ecological debt, some of the differences in level are spectacular.
In Qatar and Luxembourg, for example, the fateful date falls on Feb 10 and 14, respectively, while Jamaica’s Overshoot Day falls on Dec 20, a full 10 months later.
Meanwhile, in the United States, United Arab Emirates and Canada, Overshoot Day this year was March 13, while China’s was June 2. Last year, Earth Overshoot Day was July 28, in 2021 July 29, and Aug 22 in 2020, a period of decline linked to the slowdown in human activity during the pandemic.
Still, at a time when summers are breaking drought and heat records year after year, and the world’s forests are burning, the slight fall back in the date of Overshoot Day this year offers little consolation – especially since Earth Overshoot Day’s apparent delay by five days compared with last year’s isn’t all good news, as genuine advancements amount to less than one day.
“The remaining four days are owed to integrating improved datasets into the accounts’ new edition”, the Global Footprint Network explained.
“For the last five years the trend has flattened. How much of this is driven by economic slow-down or deliberate decarbonisation efforts is difficult to discern. Still, overshoot reduction is far too slow,” it added.
“To reach the United Nation’s target of reducing carbon emissions 43% worldwide by 2030 compared to 2010 would require moving Earth Overshoot Day 19 days annually for the next seven years.”
However, solutions do exist to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions and move Earth Overshoot Day in the right direction. According to the think-tank’s estimates, increasing global low-carbon electricity sources from 39% to 75%, for example, would help push back the deadline by 26 days, while halving food waste production would make for a gain of 13 days.