The “Watches and Wonders” show, taking place from today until April 5, will see 38 of the biggest high-end watch brands, including Rolex, Patek Philippe, Cartier and Tag Heuer, gathered under one roof.

High-end watch fairs have long been a fixture in Switzerland, where nearly 57,500 people work in the country’s world-renowned watchmaking industry. Many retailers make an annual trip to Switzerland during the fair season to put in orders for the year.

In the digital age, this show has also become a precious communications tool for reaching watch fans, with videos and presentations from the event available to all online.

This year’s edition, held at Geneva’s Palexpo conference centre, has been expected to signal the triumphant return of in-person hobnobbing over exquisite timepieces, and booming business for their creators.

After taking a beating during the first pandemic year in 2020 when exports plunged 21.8%, the Swiss watchmaking industry saw a spectacular rebound last year.

Watch exports soared 31.2% in 2021, according to Swiss customs, surpassing not only their pre-pandemic level but also the record-high of 2014.

And during the first two months of this year, exports swelled nearly 15.7% compared with the same period last year, according to the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry.

The Russian effect

The devastating conflict in Ukraine, however, has put a damper on the jubilant mood.

At first glance, Russia’s invasion should not have much impact on the industry – Russia represented only 1.1% of Swiss watch exports last year, and a number of brands halted their exports to the country even before luxury goods were included in the European sanctions imposed over the war.

However, the sector is heavily dependent on tourism and on consumer confidence, both now dealt a fresh blow after two years of Covid chaos.

Russia also happens to be a major supplier of diamonds, gold and other precious metals used by high-end watchmakers.

Ongoing large-scale Covid lockdowns in China – one of the biggest markets for Swiss watches – has also cast a shadow over the industry and this week’s show. Some analysts have already lowered their 2022 forecasts.

The Kepler Cheuvreux financial services company recently slashed its outlook for the year from 8% growth to 5%, pointing to the drop in sales in Russia and on wealthy Russians travelling abroad, plus the conflict’s impact on European clients as a whole.

“Psychologically, when you have a war on the doorstep, you are probably less likely to go out and buy luxury goods,” it said.

However, the firm insisted Swiss watchmakers still had a lot to celebrate.

“Excluding what’s happening in Ukraine, the watch industry is in very strong shape – probably the strongest it’s been for a decade or so.”