Heineken Malaysia Bhd and Carlsberg Brewery Malaysia Bhd’s shares dipped slightly today following the budget announcement last Friday.
Heineken’s share price closed 1.92% or 40 sen lower at RM20.40, valuing the stock at RM6.16 billion.
Carlsberg’s shares dropped just 0.84% or 14 sen to RM16.52 at the close, giving the brewer a market capitalisation of RM5.05 billion.
However, the shares of both companies have fallen significantly year to date with Heineken declining 17.6% while Carlsberg is down 20%, with current valuation levels below historical averages.
Some analysts believe the impact of the excise duty hike has already been priced in, given the steady drop in their shares since May on tax hike fears.
CGS International noted the two brewers’ combined market value has fallen 20% since late May.
The increase in excise duty – effective Nov 1 – is the first such adjustment since 2016. However, beer average selling prices have been raised twice in April 2024 and August 2025.
CGS and RHB Research said the brewers are still worth investing in.
RHB said margin expansion and premiumisation strategies will continue to be the key drivers for earnings growth and high dividend payout.
“While the excise duty increase poses a short-term challenge, demand is expected to normalise over time,” it said, noting the last excise duty hike in 2016 did not lead to adverse earnings impact on both brewers.
It noted the brewers are likely to pass the additional costs to consumers through 4%–5% adjustments in average selling prices (ASP). It also expects frontloaded sales in October as retailers and distributors stock up ahead of the duty hike.
The research house also expects Visit Malaysia Year 2026 to spur beer demand through increased tourist arrivals.
However, it cautioned that a rise in the contraband trade, currently estimated at 25% of the market, and weak consumer sentiment could weigh on performance.
RHB has maintained its “buy”” call on Heineken with a revised target price of RM26.50, implying a 27% upside potential.
CGS’ top pick is Heineken for its pure exposure to Malaysia. The stock trades at an undemanding 12.8 times FY2026 price-earnings and offers an attractive 7% FY2025 dividend yield, it added.