One analyst said Malaysia may be able to offset any potential tariff increase while another was of the view that the country stands to benefit from a more restrictive US approach towards China.
Security and strategy analyst Collins Chong said US-Malaysia ties must be viewed holistically and within a broader context.
“Trump’s often panned transactional approach to dealing with other powers does not necessarily bring negative implications (to Malaysia),” he told FMT.
He said Malaysia’s strengths and potential in key sectors as well as its role in striking a balance between the big powers in the region may help to offset any potential increase in tariffs.
On the campaign trail, Trump proposed implementing a 60% tariff on goods imported to the US from China and universal tariffs of 10% to 20% on those from other countries.
Likening it to a “carrot and stick” approach, Chong said how Malaysia manages the common interests it shares with the US would determine whether it is on the receiving end of the different tools available to Trump.
“China is going to be the centrepiece of his foreign policy, and in dealing with China, Trump will consider how other nations align with the US not only in economic terms but also in defence and security,” he added.
Chong also pointed out that Malaysia has enjoyed years of trade surplus with the US and received high-quality investments from the country, in terms of value, long-term technology and knowledge transfer, in addition to defence and security support.
“Malaysia, if strategic in its calculations, can also align with the new economic drive under Trump by bolstering the common quest for critical sectors, including semiconductors and critical minerals,” he added.
Center for Market Education CEO Carmelo Ferlito said it remains to be seen whether the US will impose tariffs on all nations or only China.
“We need first to see how much is barking and how much is actually biting. Malaysia has a lot to gain if the US introduces a more restrictive policy in its dealings with China,” he told FMT.
Ferlito said if tariffs are imposed on Chinese goods, Malaysia could become the transit point where such goods are processed and relabelled as Malaysian products before they reach the US.
However, he said, the bigger long-term risk for Malaysia to manage is its association with BRICS.
“This is not so aligned with the usual equidistant approach adopted by Asean countries,” he said.
“Malaysia’s participation in BRICS can be used against us if it becomes necessary, but this is not a big priority,” he added.
BRICS, formed in 2009 by Brazil, Russia, India, and China as a platform for emerging economies, expanded with South Africa’s inclusion in 2010. The bloc has since grown to include Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia and the United Arab Emirates.
Malaysia was officially recognised as one of the 13 new BRICS partner countries on Oct 24.
US-Asean ties
Ferlito said Malaysia and Asean should emphasise free trade.
“(Only) genuine free trade, not the complex framework in pacts like the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, will benefit everyone,” he said.
However, he added, this would depend on whether Asean countries believe in radically free international trade.
Chong also warned that if Asean’s de-dollarisation efforts continue, Trump may view the region as hostile or unfriendly, potentially leading him to adopt a transactional approach by raising tariffs, imposing restrictions or enforcing sanctions.
The South China Sea dispute
On the matter of security, defence specialist Lam Choong Wah expects that ties with Southeast Asia will be shaped by the next US secretary of state and the national security advisor, rather than Trump himself.
“In his second term, Trump is likely to focus on US domestic affairs and reforms rather than ties with Southeast Asia. His administration will also be expected to remain pro-Philippines,” the Universiti Malaya academic told FMT.
If the new secretary of state and national security advisor take a hawkish approach, US-China rivalry will intensify, and this will be reflected not only in the South China Sea dispute but other geopolitical hotspots as well, Lam added.