Malaysia’s OPR expected to peak at 3.25% in 2023

Malaysia’s OPR expected to peak at 3.25% in 2023

Headline inflation likely to moderate to 3.7% this year, according to Fitch Solutions.

Malaysia may be looking at more increases in interest rate going into 2023.
PETALING JAYA:
Fitch Solutions Country Risk and Industry Research expects further hikes in the overnight policy rate (OPR) going into next year, with interest rates peaking at 3.25%.

On Nov 3, Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) raised the OPR by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.75%.

“We maintain our view that BNM will raise interest rates by an additional 50 bps to a peak of 3.25% in 2023.

“However, risks are firmly weighted to the upside as major central banks around the world, particularly the US, remain quite hawkish, which could prompt the BNM to hike interest rates more aggressively in order to safeguard ringgit stability,” the research arm of US credit rating agency Fitch Solutions said.

It said the hike in the OPR by BNM was expected given that the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 bps a day earlier on Nov 2.

The 25 bps hike by BNM on Nov 3 was the fourth straight increase of that magnitude since the central bank began its rate hiking cycle in May, taking the cumulative rate hikes to 100 bps.

Fitch Solutions said it expected headline inflation to moderate over the coming months to 3.7% by the end of the year, from a rate of 4% previously. It said headline inflation will average 3.4% in 2022 before dropping to about 3.1% next year.

“We expect inflation to stay above its historical average, and with real interest rates still negative, this should prompt BNM to continue normalising its monetary policy settings,” it added.

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