The local PKR chief, Alias Ibrahim, told FMT Pakatan Harapan’s chances in the small federal constituency were bright for two reasons: disaffection among voters over the rising cost of living and an expected split in the Malay vote between PAS and Umno.
Furthermore, he claimed, PH could count on the votes of PAS members dissatisfied with Abdul Hadi Awang’s leadership of the party.
Standing in PH’s way is no lightweight. Padang Rengas is home to Umno strongman Nazri Aziz, who has never lost an election. However, support for him has been dwindling. In 2004, he got 65.74% of the votes. This was reduced to 54.88% in 2008 and 54.69% in 2013. In every one of the three elections, his only rival was a PKR candidate.
But with PAS now likely to join the fray and make it a three-way contest, Nazri may have reason to believe that the split in the opposition vote will result in a bigger majority for him.
Alias, however, thinks PAS votes will split to benefit PH.
“Not all PAS members are united behind the party.” he said. “We mustn’t forget that there are PAS members who feel the party, now under Hadi’s leadership, is no longer the same party that was led by Tok Guru Nik Abdul Aziz Mat.”
Alias said he believed PH could count on the support of such PAS members as well as erstwhile BN supporters who have confidence in former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad’s leadership of the opposition.
He said Mahathir’s admirers believed his leadership could bring beneficial changes, including the kind of change that would halt the rise in the prices of goods and services.
Alias also voiced confidence in the continued support of non-Malays for the opposition. With the support of Chinese and Indian voters, he said, there was a good chance that Pakatan would win in Cenderoh and Lubok Merbau, the two state constituencies inside Padang Rengas.
There are an estimated 30,000 voters in Padang Rengas, with Malays accounting for 77.8%, Chinese 14.5%, Indians 6.3% and others 1.1%.
Should the Malay votes be split equally between the three likely contenders, the Chinese and Indian votes would be crucial.
Many doubt that Nazri, who has drawn criticism from the Chinese for his tirade against billionaire Robert Kuok and MCA, can count on the support of the Chinese community.
But Padang Rengas Umno Youth chief Mohd Arrif Abdul Majid believes Nazri will get enough non-Malay votes to retain his seat.
“The people here love Nazri,” he claimed. “Every week when he returns, you will see Chinese and Indians going to his house. He is also active on the ground. I don’t think his comments on Kuok or MCA will affect support for him here.”
He also said the Malays would continue supporting Umno, even with PPBM campaigning for the opposition.
“The PPBM leader in Padang Rengas, Azmi Khalid, is a former Umno Youth leader, but he doesn’t have much of a following.”
Referring to the goods and services tax, which many have blamed for rising prices, he said he had not heard Malays complaining against it.
He claimed that Nazri, who is the minister of tourism and culture, had done a lot for the people of Padang Rengas in terms of developing tourism in the area and ensuring the welfare of the needy.