The bank’s research unit said it expected the election to have a long-term positive impact on passenger traffic and a short-term rise in airfares.

“History has taught us that passenger traffic tends to rise during general elections as voters return to their constituencies to cast their votes.

“This is especially true for those whose voting constituencies are across the South China Sea in Sabah and Sarawak,” it said in a research note.

“There was also growth in airfares during other general elections but they did not last long,” it added.

Maybank IB said Capital A Bhd is expected to reap more benefits from GE15 than Malaysia Airports Holdings Bhd (MAHB).

It said domestic passenger traffic grew 18% during GE13, which was held in 2013, and 3% during GE14 in 2018 while Capital A, the operator of low-cost carrier AirAsia, saw its Malaysian operations’ passenger traffic rise 11% in each of the two elections.

“We expect GE15 to exhibit similar trends. What intrigues us further is that the rise in passenger traffic in the past appeared to be structural.

“In other words, passenger traffic did not ease post-elections but stabilised or even continued growing,” the research firm noted.

However, it reckons the impact of GE15 on the sector might be less potent as the voter turnout might not be as high as GE13 (80%) and GE14 (76%) as states under Pakatan Harapan and PAS will not be dissolving their state assemblies.

Moreover, it said, Sabah and Sarawak had already held their state elections in September 2020 and December 2021 respectively and voters might also be dissuaded from flying to their voting constituencies due to the current high airfares.

“Nonetheless, we maintain our ‘buy’ calls and target prices for MAHB and Capital A at RM7.25 and 84 sen respectively, and retain our positive view on the Malaysian aviation sector,” it added.