James Fry, a veteran analyst and chairman of LMC International, said sunflower and corn plantings, which should take place soon, were also likely to be smaller in Ukraine and Russia.

He said that only a month ago, the company had expected sunflower oil exports from the Black Sea to increase by well over two million tonnes to 13.5 million tonnes in 2021-22.

The question is how much of that would be lost because of the war, he added.

“Stocks and export supplies of oils are down,” said Fry. “The cupboard is bare. There is no alternative to letting high prices do the job of rationing demand to balance the market.”

Crude palm oil for local delivery in Malaysia would likely trade from RM6,600 to RM8,100 a tonne until July, he said. Most active futures in Kuala Lumpur were at about RM6,823 today.

Combined palm oil shipments from Southeast Asia would not surpass 2020 volumes until the third quarter, Fry said.

On Monday, he forecast that Malaysian output would rise only around 3%-4% this year because of a labour shortage, while the “real crunch” in cooking oil supplies would come in the next six months.

World soybean oil shipments will likely decline in 2021-22 because of higher demand in exporting countries. That comes as the estimated expansion in this year’s soybean crush has been cut to 4.5 million tonnes from 16 million tonnes.

Fry said inflation would get worse and central banks may finally raise interest rates to rein in economic activity and limit demand for reduced supplies of food and fuel.

While the best short-term hope for higher exports was for top producer Indonesia to end its shipment quotas or briefly cut its B30 biodiesel mandate, Fry said it was doubtful such a reduction would happen.

Still, prices of palm oil, the most consumed edible oil, would eventually decline as supply builds up and demand is squeezed in the second half of the year, he said. That means crude palm oil for local delivery in Malaysia would drop to a range of RM6,200 to RM7,000 a tonne.