Apparent demand, which measures the extent to which demand exceeds or falls short of new Bitcoin being mined, was negative to the tune of about 63,000 as of late last month, CryptoQuant said in a report published Wednesday.
That’s despite periods of stronger buying by exchange-traded funds and continued accumulation by Michael Saylor’s digital asset treasury firm Strategy Inc.
“Selling from retail and other market participants is more than offsetting incremental institutional buying,” the report said. “The sustained demand contraction, now persisting since late November 2025, confirms that the broader market remains in distribution.”
The data suggests a market where new demand is being outweighed by existing holders reducing exposure – a dynamic that can cap gains even when institutional interest appears to be building.
Bitcoin snapped a five-month losing streak in March, gaining 2.2% even as the war on Iran drove up energy prices and stoked inflation fears, hurting other risk assets. Still, at around US$68,000, the largest cryptocurrency is some 45% below its peak of US$126,000 reached in early October.
CryptoQuant said large Bitcoin holders known as whales, who were once a source of steady accumulation, have turned into net sellers, offloading significant amounts of the token over the past year.
“After accumulating roughly 200,000 Bitcoin during the 2024 bull market, whales began distributing aggressively from mid-2025, with the pace accelerating sharply through fourth quarter 2025,” the report said.
“Historically, sustained negative whale accumulation has coincided with periods of prolonged price weakness, and the current reading suggests selling remains a significant structural headwind.”
At the same time, mid-tier investors who had been adding to positions are slowing their purchases, removing another layer of support.
US-based Bitcoin demand has also weakened in recent weeks, with the Coinbase Premium – a measure of the price difference between US and offshore exchanges – turning negative again, a sign American investors are no longer bidding up Bitcoin.
However, Bitcoin’s price may rebound in the short term if macro conditions improve, particularly if the US-Iran conflict de-escalates, CryptoQuant said.
“A de-escalation of geopolitical tensions could serve as a near-term positive catalyst, potentially triggering a relief rally,” it said.