Palm oil will have to become cheaper to attract demand, especially from India, Mistry, a director at Godrej International Ltd said in an interview on Monday.

Rival oils, palm and soy, have been locked in a price duel in recent months. This has prompted buyers to switch cargoes as spreads and supplies fluctuate. Palm is usually the cheapest edible oil and the default choice for India’s refiners and food makers, but that advantage has eroded at times, sending buyers towards South American soy oil when the gap narrows.

“Since last year, everything has turned upside down,” Mistry said, referring to the change in purchasing patterns and trade flows of vegetable oils. Competition between palm and soy oil will intensify in the coming months as India now sources soybean oil from at least 10 countries, up from just three previously, he said.

India is the world’s biggest importer of palm, soybean and sunflower oil, buying around 16 million tonnes in total annually, mostly from producers in Southeast Asia and South America. The country will likely import more palm and soy oil this marketing year, to replace sunflower oil whose prices have spiked, Mistry said. Palm imports are seen at about 9 million tonnes, while soy oil will be about 5.5 million tonnes, he said.

Meanwhile, production of palm oil in the world’s biggest grower, Indonesia, will likely be flat in 2026 at around 50 million tonnes, due to the ongoing government seizures of plantation land, Mistry said.

The Indonesian government’s crackdown on malfeasance in the plantation and other resource sectors has spooked investors, curbed investment into fields and fertilizers, and prompted some farmers to stop work, he said.

“The plan to seize another 5 million hectares in 2026 makes people frightened,” Mistry said. “There will be no new investment. Nobody is expanding. The growth is gone.”