Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy is heavily reliant on international trade and is vulnerable to any global slowdown induced by the tariffs, even though it only faces a baseline 10% levy from US President Donald Trump.

While beating economists’ forecasts, the gross domestic product (GDP) growth for July-September was the slowest this year, according to trade ministry data. GDP grew 4.1% in the first quarter and 4.5% in the second.

Singapore’s export-driven manufacturing sector was flat year-on-year in the third quarter, compared with the 5.0% growth in the second quarter, according to the ministry.

“Growth was weighed down by output declines in the biomedical manufacturing and general manufacturing cluster,” it said.

The preliminary GDP figures are based on economic performance in the first two months of the quarter and are subject to revision.

They reflect data released last month showing softer shipments to the city-state’s important export markets.

Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports shrank 11.3% in August, accelerating from the 4.7% fall in July.

Exports to the US tumbled nearly 29% in August, extending a 42.8% decline in July.

And exports to China tumbled 21.5%, steeper than the 12.3% decrease in July.

Singapore’s trade ministry in August raised its 2025 growth forecast to 1.5-2.5% from an earlier range of 0-2.0% but warned that global uncertainties remained.