However, the picture is bleaker for 2026, the WTO warned, as the impact of the US tariffs kick in.

The WTO raised its forecast for trade volume growth in 2025 to 2.4% – up from 0.9% in August – and cut its 2026 outlook from 1.8% to 0.5%.

“Global merchandise trade outpaced expectations in the first half of 2025, driven by increased spending on AI-related products, a surge in North American imports ahead of tariff hikes, and strong trade among the rest of the world,” the WTO said as it published its updated global trade outlook.

In a rare move, the WTO has revised its estimates several times this year due to uncertainties surrounding the impact of the new tariffs imposed by the Trump administration.

Since returning to office in January, Trump has slapped several waves of new tariffs on imports entering the US.

His administration has imposed a basic tariff of 10% on all countries since April, with much higher rates for some economies.

“Countries’ measured response to tariff changes in general, the growth potential of AI, as well as increased trade among the rest of the world – particularly among emerging economies – helped ease trade setbacks in 2025,” said WTO chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala.

But the former Nigerian finance minister said trade resilience this year should not fool countries into “complacency”.

“Today’s disruptions to the global trade system are a call to action for nations to reimagine trade and together lay a stronger foundation that delivers greater prosperity for people everywhere,” she said.

The WTO’s global GDP growth projection is 2.7% this year and 2.6% in 2026.