US shipments to China, worth around US$120 million a month, collapsed after Beijing in March allowed permits to expire at hundreds of American meat facilities and as Trump unleashed a tit-for-tat tariff war.
Other US farm exports to China, the world’s biggest food importer, have also suffered since Trump retook power. On soybeans alone, US farmers have lost out on shipments worth billions of dollars during the current harvest season.
US beef exports have in general declined in recent years as drought shrank the country’s cattle herd, reducing production and pushing prices to record highs. But the drop in trade with China has been far more sudden and extreme.
The value of US beef sent to China fell to just US$8.1 million in July and US$9.5 million in August, Chinese trade data showed, compared to US$118 million and US$125 million in the same months a year earlier.
Australia has mopped up. Its beef shipments to China shot from US$140 million a month in the two years to March to US$221 million in July and US$226 million in August.
In total, over the five months from April through August, US beef exports to China were worth US$388 million less than if trade had remained at the average level of the previous two years. Australian shipments were worth US$313 million more.
Brazil, China’s largest beef supplier, has also stepped up exports in recent months, but Australia has benefited most because its grain-fed beef is the closest equivalent to US products.
“It’s good for Australia,” said Matt Dalgleish, a meat and livestock analyst at Australian consultants Episode 3. “It’s underpinning really strong prices for cattle.”
Trade negotiations between Beijing and Washington could end the lock-out, said US Meat Export Federation spokesperson Joe Schuele.
“The beef impasse with China has very little to do with beef,” he said. “It’s entangled in other issues between the US and China. If they can make progress on those issues, we see more hope for getting this resolved.”
US beef shipments to China surged in 2020 and 2021 after Trump, in his first term, struck a trade deal with Beijing.
China plays a useful role for US beef processors by paying premium prices for cuts like chuck rolls that are less popular in the US.
“We still need to export the cuts that do not attract a lot of attention in the domestic market,” Schuele said. “We’re losing out on the upward pressure of the Chinese bids.”
Even with a trade agreement, the US would struggle to take back market share for several years, said Dalgleish.
Australia’s beef production has reached all-time highs, and its meat is far cheaper — so much so that Australia is not only shipping more to China but exporting record quantities to the US.
“The US isn’t really in a position to be competitive,” said Dalgleish.
Meanwhile, looming over all beef suppliers to China is an investigation by Beijing into imports that could result in curbs on trade to deal with a beef supply glut inside China. The investigation is due to run until Nov 26.