
Consumer prices rose by 0.2% in August compared with a year earlier, according to figures from the federal statistics office, as price rises for domestic products were offset by cheaper imports.
It followed a 0.2% increase in July, and meant inflation has remained within the SNB’s price stability target of prices increasing annually by 0%-2% for the third month in a row after a 0.1% reading in June.
The figures ease pressure on the SNB to cut rates again on Sept 25, after the central bank cut its interest rate to zero at its last meeting in June to tackle deflationary pressure.
The SNB declined to comment on the latest inflation figures today, but markets raised the likelihood to 91% chairman Martin Schlegel will leave the current 0% policy rate unchanged, following the data.
Previously markets had priced in an 85% probability that rates would be unchanged.
“The August inflation data gives the SNB no reason to take action,” said Thomas Gitzel, chief economist at VP Bank.
“The decisive factor is that inflation is above zero and the underlying deflationary trends have not intensified further.
“The price-dampening effect of imported goods is gradually easing year-on-year and is likely to disappear completely next year if the Swiss franc does not appreciate further,” he added.
“The current economic uncertainty, especially with the US imposing tariffs of 39% on Swiss imports, meant the SNB would prefer to keep its options open,” said GianLuigi Mandruzzato at EFG Bank, including negative rates and further currency interventions.
Early indicators, however, still pointed to moderate growth in the Swiss economy, he said, reducing the need for lower interest rates to boost activity.
“The bottom line is the SNB could keep rates at 0% for several more quarters,” said Mandruzzato.