The 50% duty imposed by US President Donald Trump on imports of several Brazilian goods, including coffee, has sparked concern over supplies to the US market, driving a recent surge in coffee futures in New York.

Conab on Thursday cautioned that it will not be easy for the US to replace Brazilian coffee with product from other origins, saying in a report that the trend of rising global prices could persist.

The agency noted that stocks are at their lowest in 25 years, and that the US would face stiff competition from other large importers such as Europe for coffee coming from other producing nations.

“In this context, the trend is for coffee prices to rise in the United States and other major consumer markets,” Conab said.

The US is the world’s largest coffee consumer, while Brazil is the No. 1 producer and exporter.

“In 2024, Brazilian coffee accounted for 33% of the US market, and the sectors involved in importing, processing, and marketing the product in the country are pressuring the US government to reduce the 50% tariff,” Conab said.

The agency slightly lowered its forecast for the 2025 coffee crop in Brazil, whose harvest is nearly complete. Output is now expected to total 55.2 million 60-kg bags, down from a May forecast of 55.7 million bags.

That would still mark a 1.8% increase from the previous year, Conab noted.

The agency pegged Brazil’s arabica coffee production this year at 35.15 million bags, below the 37 million previously projected. Robusta coffee output is seen reaching 20.05 million bags, up from the 18.7 million estimated in May.