HSBC’s new target represents a 1.3% upside to the benchmark index’s last close of 6,415.54.

“Earnings momentum is strong, especially among technology and financials, while company commentary suggests a modest tariff impact,” Nicole Inui, head of equity strategy for the Americas at HSBC, wrote in a note.

Global brokerages including J.P. Morgan and Morgan Stanley have also forecast the index target to hit 6,500 by year-end.

Of the 489 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported second-quarter results through Friday, 79.6% beat analysts’ earnings estimates, according to data compiled by LSEG. That is higher than the prior four-quarter average of 76.4% and well above the long-term average of 67%.

Investors have bet heavily on Big Tech companies’ billion-dollar AI spending spree, with the index notching fresh highs last week as Nvidia’s earnings confirmed spending related to AI infrastructure remains strong.

HSBC maintained a bull-case scenario of 7,000 and a bear-case of 5,700 for the index, if tariffs weigh more heavily on margins.

“We expect a Fed cut in September, but see a shallower easing cycle versus what the market is pricing in,” HSBC added.