A dismal US jobs report sent the S&P 500 tumbling to its steepest intraday loss in more than two months on Friday, with downward revisions for May and June compounding the blow.
The bleak data did not just trigger the market selloff – it also sparked a dramatic rethink of the Fed’s rate path.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders now see an 85% chance of a September rate cut, up from just over 63% a week ago, as signs of a faltering labour market mount.
By this year-end, markets are betting on at least two quarter-point cuts, about 60 basis points – a prospect that helped steady Wall Street in the aftermath.
At 6.57am, US S&P 500 E-minis were up 36.75 points, or 0.59%, Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 177.5 points, or 0.78% and Dow E-minis were up 238 points, or 0.54%
The central bank’s decision to keep rates unchanged last week drew immediate criticism from President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly threatened to fire chair Jerome Powell, arguing that rates should be much lower than they are.
Adding to the intrigue, the surprise resignation of Fed governor Adriana Kugler has handed Trump an earlier-than-expected opportunity to reshape the central bank’s leadership.
“It is expected that whoever Trump announces to replace the governor could then become the new chair when current chair Powell vacates his position next May,” Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB, said in a note.
In premarket trading, Tesla rose 1.8% after granting CEO Elon Musk 96 million shares worth about US$29 billion.
Investor sentiment soured further last week as new US tariffs kicked in on dozens of trading partners and Trump signed executive orders slapping fresh import duties on countries like Canada, Brazil, India, and Taiwan despite their efforts to negotiate better terms.
US factory orders data for June is due at 10am. Tomorrow’s business activity report and Thursday’s jobless claims figures are the only other key economic indicators in this data-light week.
Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic will speak later in the week.
After a big week for Big Tech earnings, companies from various sectors including Palantir, Eli Lilly, and Disney will report this week.
Of the 330 S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings as of Friday, 80.6% have surpassed analyst expectations, the highest beat rate since the third quarter of 2023, according to data compiled by LSEG.
Among early movers, Joby Aviation rose 5.3% after Bloomberg News reported that the company was exploring the acquisition of helicopter ride-share operator Blade Air Mobility.
Blade Air’s shares surged 16.4%.
Chemours rises after reaching an agreement with New Jersey to resolve all environmental claims.