The kingdom steered the group to agree the third super-sized monthly output hike in a row, despite dissent from a faction led by Russia. The Saudis are doubling down on a historic shift, driving oil prices lower as they seek to punish the alliance’s quota cheats and reclaim their share of global markets.
The policy change dragged crude futures to a four-year low below US$60 a barrel in April, affecting everyone from American drivers to petrochemical users in Asia. It’s forcing oil producers to confront an alarming prospect: Just how quickly might the kingdom restart millions more idled barrels?
The meeting’s outcome marks a new peak in the Saudis’ long-running dominance of Opec+. It raises questions over the future of the alliance and the complex web of relations between Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Russia’s Vladimir Putin — as well as President Donald Trump.
“Saudi Arabia is playing a big role,” Thamir Ghadhban, Iraq’s former deputy prime minister for energy affairs and oil minister from 2018 to 2020, said in an interview before Saturday’s meeting. “There is a sort of power now for the Saudis within Opec+.”
The latest Opec+ policy shift began on April 3, when Saudi Arabia and seven other Opec+ nations stunned oil markets with the announcement of a supply hike for May of 411,000 barrels a day — triple the scheduled amount.
The decision came even as global markets buckled amid faltering Chinese demand and Trump’s trade war, causing oil prices to plunge briefly below US$60 a barrel.
Rather than build consensus for this reversal, the Saudis had summoned members to an impromptu video conference and unveiled their plans with just days — or in some cases hours — of notice.
Officials said they were left in the dark about what was driving the U-turn, offering a range of motives to explain why the world’s most stalwart defender of high oil prices was now labouring to sink them.
Some representatives said Riyadh simply wanted to appease Trump, who has urged Opec to lower fuel costs and toured Gulf states last month amid a cascade of multi-billion dollar deals. Others believed the kingdom had lost patience with overproduction by Kazakhstan and Iraq, and intended to discipline them through the “controlled sweating” of lower prices.
People familiar with the matter said Riyadh is motivated by the desire to claw back the market share it has relinquished over the years to US shale drillers.
The internal confusion persisted when the Saudis convened another video conference in May, resulting in an agreement for a second production surge the following month.
This unilateralism contrasts with the early years of Opec+, when negotiations at its headquarters in Vienna could sprawl into the night — or subsequent days — until a compromise between the position of different members was reached. Even though Riyadh typically won, there was at least room for debate.
“Definitely the bigger producer wielded more power, but they were aware that other members have a say and have a role to play,” said Iraq’s Ghadhban. “We had a say. We used to discuss, we used to disagree.”
Russian opposition
By the time key Opec+ members held their latest monthly video-conference on Saturday, fissures were emerging.
Russia — the only member with comparable oil production and geopolitical clout to Saudi Arabia — was supported by Oman and Algeria as it argued for Opec+ to hold output steady in July and wait to assess the impact of earlier increases.
But with no other opposition, the Saudi proposal for to another 411,000 barrels a day was approved. While Russia and its allies acquiesced, and delegates denied there was any real split, there was no doubt who carried the day.
The agreement means Opec+ is just over halfway through its accelerated revival of 2.2 million barrels-a-day of halted production. The coalition will meet again on July 6 to discuss its supply increase for August, when the differences between Moscow and Riyadh will come back into play.
“Saudi Arabia is really in the driving seat,” said Jorge Leon, an analyst at Rystad Energy A/S, who previously worked at the OPEC secretariat. “This isn’t just supply management — it’s strategic calibration with geopolitical intent.”