Malaysia’s 2025 GDP is seen expanding just 4.1%, according to the median estimate of 28 economists polled.
That is down from a February forecast of 4.7% and a full percentage point slower than last year’s expansion of 5.1%. Second-quarter growth is expected to come in at 4.2%, from a prior forecast of 4.5%.
“Malaysia’s economic growth is set to moderate further over the course of 2025,” Chua Han Teng, senior economist at DBS Bank in Singapore, said in an email, adding that exports will face headwinds from heightened global trade tensions.
The surveys underscore the extent to which Southeast Asia, one of the world’s fastest-growing regions, is being hit by both levies on exports to the US and the broader slowdown in global trade.
In Malaysia, domestic demand will remain resilient due to supportive household spending and sustained investment expansion, Chua said.
Inflation is contained, likely providing room for Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) to loosen monetary policy in the second half of this year, the economist said.
BNM said earlier this month that it has policy room to act, as it expects growth to fall below the official forecast this year.
Thailand’s gross domestic product (GDP) is set to expand 2.1% in 2025, according to the median prediction of 27 economists Bloomberg surveyed in May.
That is lower than the 2.8% expected in a February survey, and below last year’s 2.5% growth.
“We see the economy would slow down over the next few quarters since the negative impact of trade war would kick in,” Krung Thai Bank’s first vice-president Chamadanai Marknual said in an emailed comment.
Foreign tourist arrivals are also likely to be lower than anticipated, and there will be limited room for additional fiscal stimulus, he said.
The Thai economy will probably post growth of 2.4% in the second quarter from a year earlier, down from the previous forecast of a 2.8% expansion.
Earlier this month, Thailand’s National Economic and Social Development Council said GDP will likely expand in a range of 1.3% to 2.3% in 2025, with growth constrained by high household and corporate debt burdens.