
“The risk of recession persists,” the DIHK said, but following a promising first quarter, its forecast was more optimistic than the previously forecast 0.5% contraction published in February.
Economic growth in the first quarter was significantly stronger than expected due to export and industry frontloading ahead of US tariffs.
Germany had been expected to be badly affected by tariffs due to its export-oriented economy.
The US was Germany’s biggest trading partner in 2024, with two-way goods trade totalling €253 billion (US$288.02 billion).
The DIHK forecasts German exports to decline by 2.5% in 2025, also contracting for a third consecutive year.
A DIHK survey, conducted among 23,000 companies from all sectors and regions, showed that 29% of the companies expect exports to fall over the next 12 months, while only 19% expect exports to rise.