First quarter (Q1) gross domestic product data, March’s reading of the personal consumption expenditures price index – the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation metric – and ADP employment figures are all due on the day.
The US economy is expected to have stalled or even contracted in Q1, with economists sharply downgrading estimates after data yesterday showed the goods trade deficit surged to an all-time high in March.
A series of data releases over the month has indicated an increasingly murky economic outlook and a sharp decline in business and consumer sentiment, underscoring the fallout from the rapidly changing US tariff policy.
“The impact of tariffs is unlikely to be felt before the first week of May but we do see a marked slowdown relative to early-in-the-year expectations,” said economists at Jefferies.
“From a market perspective, this suggests that the risk sentiment rally is likely to stall and potentially take a step back,” economists said.
Caterpillar was up 2% in premarket trading after its quarterly results, helping futures linked to the Dow.
“Magnificent Seven” members Meta Platforms and Microsoft were down marginally as investors await their results, due after markets close, for clarity on the outlook for the tech sector and AI-focused investments.
Fanning concerns about a pullback in investments into AI, Super Micro Computer cut its third-quarter forecasts due to delays in customer spending, sending its shares down 16.3%.
Snapchat parent dropped about 14% after saying it would not provide a second-quarter financial forecast.
Several companies have cut or even withdrawn guidance due to tariff uncertainty over the past weeks.
At 6.55am, Dow E-minis were up 47 points, or 0.12%, S&P 500 E-minis were down 13.5 points, or 0.24%, and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were down 84.75 points, or 0.43%.
The indexes have recouped some ground this month after a sharp slump following the April 2 “Liberation Day” tariff announcements.
The Nasdaq is set for gains this month, while the other two are set to slip.
The S&P 500 notched its best winning streak since November yesterday, but intraday trading has been choppy over the past few sessions as investors assess rapid trade developments.
President Donald Trump signed a pair of orders to soften the blow of auto tariffs yesterday.
Today also marks 100 days since Trump took office. Erratic changes in trade policies and uncertainty have roiled markets over that period, offsetting initial optimism over the administration’s business-friendly policies.
The benchmark S&P 500 has lost more than 7% since Trump’s presidency began, and is off over 9% from its February record close.
Among other stocks, Humana gained 5.6% after beating Wall Street estimates for Q1 profit, while Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings tumbled 7.4% after missing Q1 earnings estimates.