Overall delivery of US LNG shipments in the first quarter (Q1) of 2025 fell by 70%, according to Chinese official custom data released yesterday.

The hiatus is the longest since the last trade war triggered during US President Donald Trump’s first tenure, when China didn’t receive cargoes for about 400 days.

The geopolitical conflict is once again decoupling the world’s largest LNG buyer and seller.

An escalation in mutual tariffs has led China to impose a 125% tariff on all US goods, turning to Indonesia and Qatar for supplies.

Imports of the super-chilled fuel have been lower than the previous year for five months in a row, with a 24.5% drop in March marking the biggest slump since November 2022.

Pipeline gas, mainly from Russia, posted a marginal increase in Q1, though total volumes remained lower than seaborne shipments.

China has been relying on coal and renewables rather than on the spot LNG market to shield its energy security against trade turbulence, according to BloombergNEF’s analyst Daniela Li.

“The country may see minimal growth in its total gas consumption this year, and may slash LNG imports by as much as 12% compared with last year if tariffs remain above 100% for the next six months,” she said.

BloombergNEF outlook

“The PMI data release this week from Japan and next week from China will be important to watch,” said Ahbishek Rohatgi, an analyst with BloombergNEF.

“Markets will be closely monitoring these to assess the early impact of tariffs on industrial gas demand.

“Weak PMI data may keep the downward pressure on prices,” he added.