Investor sentiment towards the US economy and markets going into the two events today is downbeat, and the longer the gloom persists, the higher the bar is for lifting it.
The nonfarm payrolls report is likely to show the addition of 160,000 jobs in February, following a 143,000 gain in January, while the unemployment rate is set to hold steady at 4%, Reuters economist polls showed.
But risk is to the downside, especially given a slew of data in recent times that missed market estimates.
Global growth concern has shot back onto the radar of financial markets – as if it ever went away – with trade tension weighing on consumer confidence and business activity.
As it is, Fed funds futures point to three more policy interest rate cuts by year-end, and a huge miss in either the payrolls or unemployment figures could prompt traders to ratchet up those bets.
Given Powell is set to speak just a few hours after the data is released, he could provide real-time reaction on what the figures might mean for the central bank’s interest rate outlook.
Fed officials have already sounded the alarm on a weakening US economy, though governor Christopher Waller said he is strongly against a cut at this month’s policy meeting.
Elsewhere in markets, a global bond selloff triggered by Germany’s plans for huge spending showed signs of abating as bund futures and French OAT futures jumped. Bond prices move inversely to yields.
European stock futures pointed to a negative open, though Wall Street futures ticked higher, looking set to reverse their decline yesterday after the Nasdaq confirmed it has been in a correction since December.
Investors are recalibrating how to play Trump’s whipsawing policy, weighing that a so-called “Trump put” supporting stock market prices may be fading and that his administration is more keenly focused on the debt markets.
In the latest policy twist, the US president yesterday suspended tariffs of 25% he had imposed this week on most goods from Canada and Mexico.
Key developments that could influence markets today include US nonfarm payrolls (February), speeches from several Fed officials, including chair Powell, and Trump tariff headlines.