Indonesia’s sticky 5% GDP growth tests Prabowo’s 8% ambition

Indonesia’s sticky 5% GDP growth tests Prabowo’s 8% ambition

The growth outlook is clouded by tariff threats and prospects of a full-blown trade war, putting Indonesia’s exports at risk.

Indonesian president Prabowo Subianto, whose five-year term started in October 2024, aims to spur economic growth to 8% – a level last hit in 1996. (EPA Images pic)
JAKARTA:
Indonesia’s economy expanded at a steady 5% pace in 2024 as consumption remained tepid, underlining the challenges ahead for President Prabowo Subianto who wants to super-charge growth to 8% during his term.

Gross domestic product (GDP) in the three months through December rose 5.02% from a year ago, according to the statistics agency today.

That compares with the 4.96% median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey and against the 4.95% reported for the third quarter.

Full-year GDP growth of 5.03% was broadly in line with the 5.02% median estimate although still short of the government’s 5.2% target for 2024. Output increased by 0.53% from the prior quarter.

While the data shows the resilience of Southeast Asia’s largest economy, it also adds to concerns that growth has plateaued, with expansion averaging 5% for more than two decades despite heavy investment in infrastructure and aided by a young population.

Its 2024 performance puts it behind neighbours Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam.

Prabowo, whose five-year term started in October, aims to spur economic growth to 8% – a level last hit in 1996 – through programmes such as distributing free meals, building more public housing, and securing more investment into local manufacturing.

The rupiah strengthened 0.2% to 16,320 per dollar at midday. The main stock gauge fell by 0.6% to 7,032.6.

Indonesia’s economy was boosted by its exports sector, which grew 7.63% last quarter.

However, household consumption – which accounts more than half of domestic output – grew 4.98%.

It has remained below 5% for five consecutive quarters, the longest streak since 2017, excluding the pandemic years.

To support consumption Prabowo scaled back a tax increase initially planned for this year.

The government also introduced some fiscal stimulus measures, including electricity rebates and income tax cuts for certain manufacturing workers.

The growth outlook is clouded by tariff threats and prospects of a full-blown trade war, putting Indonesia’s exports at risk.

This could prompt Bank Indonesia to cut policy rates further as inflation hit a two-decade low, even as global uncertainty calls for vigilance on the currency.

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