Hong Leong Investment Bank Bhd said this outlook is also supported by front-loading orders ahead of a potential trade war and continuous global demand for electrical and electronics products.
However, the investment bank said the uncertainty over trade policy could weigh on the global trade outlook.
“Following this, we maintain our gross domestic product (GDP) growth forecasts at 5% year-on-year (y-o-y) for 2024 and +4.9% y-o-y for 2025,” it said in a research note today.
According to the statistics department, the country’s total trade in November rose 2.9% to RM237.8 billion from RM231.1 billion a year earlier, driven by growth in exports and imports.
It said exports grew by 4.1% to RM126.6 billion, while imports improved by 1.6% to reach RM111.2 billion.
The trade surplus surged by 26.3% to RM15.3 billion, the 55th consecutive month of surplus since May 2020.
Meanwhile, in a separate note, CIMB Investment Bank Bhd said Malaysia’s external trade outlook remains supported by the ongoing recovery in global demand amid the technology (tech) upcycle and easing monetary policies in the second half of 2024, despite potential tariff headwinds from the US protectionist policies.
“We forecast export growth to expand 5.3% in 2025 (2024: +5%), alongside a projected 5.6% rise in imports (2024: +12.8%) in tandem with GDP growth of 5% (2024: +5.2%).
“Although lingering trade and political uncertainties pose downside risks, Malaysia’s strategic location, advanced trade infrastructure, and proactive policy measures have positioned it well to capitalise on opportunities in the shifting global trade environment,” CIMB said.
Echoing the same, Maybank Investment Bank Bhd, in its research note, said the growth should ease worries over the outlook for the fourth quarter of 2024 (Q4 2024) current account balance, given that it was barely in surplus in the previous two quarters (Q3 2024: +RM2.2 billion or +0.4% of GDP; Q2 2024: +RM3 billion / +0.6% of GDP).
The investment bank said that for the 11 months of 2024, exports and imports grew by 4.7% and 13.3%, respectively, resulting in a RM117.9 billion trade surplus.
“Outlook for 2025 is clouded by uncertainties over Trump 2.0’s trade and tariff policies, hence our forecasts of slower exports and imports growth of +4.5% and +6.3%, respectively, and a lower trade surplus of +RM112 billion,” it added.