Overseas shipments have this year represented a rare bright spot in the Chinese economy, with domestic spending mired in a slump and persistent woes in the property sector spooking investors.

However, observers pointed out that the recent spike in exports could be down to companies ramping up stockpiles amid fears of another China-US trade war when Donald Trump takes the White House next month.

Exports jumped 6.7% on-year to US$312.3 billion last month, China’s General Administration of Customs said.

The reading was much slower than the 8.7% anticipated by economists in a Bloomberg survey and well down from the 12.7% leap in October, which was the strongest in more than two years.

The data showed exports grew 5.4% on-year in January-November.

“China’s exports were perhaps the biggest upside surprise for the economy in 2024,” wrote Lynn Song, Chief Economist for Greater China at ING.

This is “one of the main reasons China is set to achieve its ‘around five percent’ growth target” for this year, he added.

Analysts suggested the recent surge in shipments is because foreign buyers fearing another trade standoff were racing to beat any possible tariffs on Chinese goods by Trump.

“We could see some frontloading of exports in the coming few months but momentum is likely to soften after this is done, unless the outcome of tariff negotiations is surprisingly positive,” wrote Song.

The 3.9% drop in imports last month extended a 2.3% slide in the previous month – and was much worse than the 0.9% rise forecast – as domestic demand continues to be dampened by lacklustre consumer spending.

The readings come as investors closely watch signals from Chinese leaders, who are convening this week in Beijing for a series of key meetings on economic planning for the coming year.

The Politburo, China’s top decision-making body, urged “vigorous” support for consumption and a loosening of monetary policy in 2025, state media said Monday.

But observers are still waiting for the announcement of specific policies, particularly any measures to significantly bolster consumption.

Zhang Zhiwei, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, said in a note that another key meeting on economic policy – expected to take place in the coming days – could “shed more light, particularly on the fiscal policy front”.