Oil prices were steady and gold traded just below a record high touched last week as investors awaited US labour data for more clarity on the pace of US rate cuts.
MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was 0.13% lower at 620.05 on Tuesday, just below the two-and-a-half-year high of 627.66 touched on Monday. The index is up 17% so far in the year.
Japan’s Nikkei rose 1.5% in early trading after shedding 4.8% on Monday as investors contended with perceived monetary policy hawk Shigeru Ishiba winning a contest to become the country’s prime minister.
Japanese shares were buoyed by a softer yen which stood at 144.09 per dollar in early trading.
With mainland China’s financial markets closed for the rest of the week, the blistering rally that has buoyed Asian markets in the past week is set to take a breather. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is also closed on Tuesday.
A slew of economic stimulus measures has led to beaten-down Chinese stocks soaring, with the blue chip CSI300 rising 25% since the beginning of last week as global investors prepare to stake bets on China again.
“I think we’re in for some choppy trade until US data comes to flow in,” said Matt Simpson, senior market analyst at City Index, noting volume is thin with Chinese markets shut.
No hurry
Investor focus has been centred on the pace of rate cuts from the Fed after the US central bank kickstarted an easing cycle last month with a 50 basis-point cut.
Fed chair Powell indicated on Monday the US central bank would likely stick to quarter-percentage-point cuts henceforth after new data boosted confidence in economic growth and consumer spending.
“This is not a committee that feels like it is in a hurry to cut rates quickly,” Powell said.
That led traders to price in 38% probability of a 50bp cut next month, versus 53% on Friday, showed the CME FedWatch tool. Traders anticipate 70bps of easing this year.
The shifting expectations around rate cuts bolstered the dollar, with the dollar index slightly higher at 100.77. The euro was steady at US$1.11355.
“As per usual, Powell is not being goaded by market pricing,” said City Index’s Simpson.
“To say that cuts are not on a preset course should serve as a warning to USD bears, given data has generally surprised to the upside in recent weeks.”
Given the Fed’s current focus on the labour market, Tuesday’s data on job openings for August and the ISM manufacturing survey for September will be important for rate expectations and the dollar, said economist Kristina Clifton at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
“Dollar can remain heavy if this week’s data shows the US labour market remains in reasonable shape.”
In commodities, oil prices were stable in early trading on Tuesday as the prospect of additional supply amid lacklustre global demand growth offset worry that an escalating Middle East conflict could disrupt exports in the key producing region.
Brent crude futures rose 0.11% to US$71.78 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 0.07% to US$68.22 a barrel.
Spot gold was 0.11% higher at US$2,637.56 per ounce, not far from the record high of US$2,685.42 touched on Thursday. Gold rose 13% over July-September, its best quarterly performance in over four years.