Debt supply risk looms for China bonds on fiscal stimulus plan

Debt supply risk looms for China bonds on fiscal stimulus plan

Analyst expects China’s yield curve to continue to steepen with supply and the stronger-than-expected stimulus plan.

Officials have issued some 752 billion yuan (US$107.2 billion) of the securities so far this year out of a planned one trillion yuan by November, according to calculations by Bloomberg. (Wikipedia pic)
BEIJING:
A flurry of news on China’s use of special sovereign debt to fund fresh stimulus highlights a growing risk to its record bond rally — a surge in new supply.

Officials have issued some 752 billion yuan (US$107.2 billion) of the securities so far this year out of a planned one trillion yuan by November, according to calculations by Bloomberg.

Now they are said to be mulling an additional one trillion yuan of capital injection into banks, mainly using special bonds, Bloomberg reported on Thursday. And Reuters reported a planned two trillion yuan of special issuance this year for local government use and to stimulate consumption.

Alongside the Politburo’s pledge for sufficient fiscal spending, the reports led to a sell-off in China’s 30-year government bonds, where yields surged by the most in nearly two years on Thursday. The longer-dated benchmark yields extended gains on Friday, having hit the lowest since at least 2005 earlier this week.

While any decisions remain to be confirmed and details finalised, the reported debt issuance would bring significant upside to sovereign debt supply.

“Based on experience last year – when additional debt quota was approved in October and actual issuance started in November – we also see additional bond supply toward late 4Q,” said Becky Liu, head of China macro strategy at Standard Chartered Bank Plc.

Liu expects China’s yield curve to continue to steepen with supply as one reason and the stronger-than-expected stimulus plan another.

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