The figure, based on pre-sales data from 2015 through the first half of this year, is bigger than Germany’s total housing stock in 2021.

It presents a direct threat to developers’ revenue because people could start avoiding pre-sales of new developments and instead buy completed or second-hand housing, analysts Kristy Hung and Monica Si wrote.

China’s property sector is facing multiple headwinds. Developers are suffering from liquidity shortage, despite the country’s rescue package that included a 300 billion yuan (IS$42 billion) relending programme. New home residential sales slumped further in July by 19.7%.

Adding to the challenges, the country’s ageing demographic means a shortage of construction workers. Migrant labour’s average age rose to 43 in 2023 from 38 in 2014, with those above 50 jumping to 31% from 17%.

Younger workers below 30 have declined to 17% from 34%, partly due to the pay that’s less than the country’s average wage.

There’s a correlation between annual home completions and the number of construction workers, which hit its peak of 61 million in 2014 and has declined by 25% since, according to the Bloomberg Intelligence report.

Home completion was short by 8.4 billion square metres for sales made from 2000 through the first half of this year, about 38% of the cumulative total, the analysts said. The non-completion ratio soared from an average of 17% of annual sales before 2015 to 47% in 2015-23.

China is seeing a fundamental shift in buyer preference, with existing-home sales overtaking new homes by area for the first time ever last year.

Completed homes accounted for 27% of new sales in the first half, compared with 10% for all of 2021, according to the report.