In a research note, the bank said this projection matches the statistics department’s advance estimate and consensus median forecast.

“Following this, we maintain our 2024 GDP growth forecast at +4.8% y-o-y, pending the release of full Q1 2024 GDP print, on the back of supportive domestic demand and recovery in global trade activity,” it said.

HLIB stated that growth is expected to be driven by stronger performances across most sectors, particularly the services, manufacturing, and construction sectors while the agriculture sector moderates.

On the demand side, it said growth is anticipated to be primarily led by private consumption and the recovery in export activity.

“The introduction of a flexible EPF account starting in May 2024 and salary increase for civil servants in December 2024 are also expected to lift private consumption further, though the extent may be neutralised subject to pending subsidy reforms,” it said.

Meanwhile, Maybank Investment Bank Bhd pointed out that Q1 2024 saw a firmer performance for the industrial production index, services index, construction works value, and crude palm oil output.

Therefore, it said that Q1 2024 GDP is anticipated to grow +4.2% y-o-y based on these indicators.

“Our Q1 2024 real GDP growth estimate is based on projections of faster actual versus advance estimate growth for services,” it added.

Actual Q1 2024 GDP figures will be released on May 17.