The forecast is fairly encouraging. According to the Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI), a global industry association, electronics sales are projected to post a healthy quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) growth of 10% in the third quarter of 2023 (Q3 2023).
In its semiconductor manufacturing monitor (SMM) report done in collaboration with TechInsights, SEMI noted that the decline in the sale of integrated circuits (ICs) was already tapering off as it approached the end of a down cycle.
A recovery should be expected in 2024, it said.
SEMI said the sale of memory ICs was also expected to log double digit growth for the first time since the Q3 2022 downturn, while logic sales were expected to remain stable or even improve as demand gradually recovered.
However, it is not all so rosy yet. The report said challenges would persist for the semiconductor manufacturing sector in the latter half of this year.
For instance, it said, the decline in capital equipment billings and silicon shipment could prolong despite stable outcomes in the first half of 2023.
This suggested that the semiconductor industry had hit rock bottom in the first half of 2023 and it had since begun to recover, setting the stage for ongoing growth in 2024, the report added.
It said all segments were anticipated to show year-on-year (y-o-y) increases in 2024, with electronics sales surpassing their peak in 2022.
SEMI market intelligence senior director Clark Tseng said the slower-than-expected recovery in demand would delay the normalisation of inventory until end 2023, later than previously anticipated.
He also anticipated that semiconductor manufacturing would hit its lowest point in the first quarter of 2024.
Boris Metodiev, market analysis director at semiconductor information platform TechInsights, said that although the market had seen a sharp downturn over the past four quarters, equipment sales and fab construction had outperformed expectations.
“Government incentives have stimulated new fab projects and strong backlogs have bolstered equipment sales,” he said.
The SMM report that was released on Aug 15, highlighted trends based on industry indicators including capital equipment, fab capacity and semiconductor as well as electronics sales and includes a capital equipment market forecast.