Gross gambling revenue from January through November came in at about US$4.8 billion, less than half Macau’s casino income in the same period last year and a far cry from the US$36 billion it racked up in pre-pandemic 2019.
Analysts are predicting that with just a month left in 2022, the annual figure will be the lowest since Macau started keeping records in 2005 when it booked US$5.7 billion in gambling revenue.
Ben Lee, a gambling expert at consultancy IGamiX, forecasts the city’s full-year gross income will come in at between US$5.1 billion and US$5.3 billion – Macau’s worst year since the late gaming tycoon Stanley Ho’s monopoly on the city’s casinos ended in 2002.
Last month, the city’s six operators – Wynn Macau, MGM China, Melco International, SJM Holdings, Sands China and Galaxy Entertainment – won new 10-year licences to keep operating in the former Portuguese colony, the only place in China where casinos are legal.
But all of Macau’s casino companies are swimming in red ink, and their share prices have taken a beating after nearly three years of strict virus curbs.
“The confirmation of the new concessions … will comfort their shareholders,” Lee told Nikkei Asia.
“However, that is not really germane to our prospect of recovery, which totally hinges on the mainland with regards to our collective Covid-zero directions as well as their policies on visitors permitted to travel to Macau.”
Cities across China have been easing virus curbs after a spate of unrest over the past week in response to the zero-Covid policy that has battered the economy, including in Macau where gambling is crucial to local business and jobs.
The city, which topped Las Vegas in gambling receipts before the pandemic, went into a nearly two-week lockdown earlier this year during its worst virus outbreak.
MGM’s Cotai casino resort was briefly shut with hundreds inside after a dealer was infected with Covid.
Chinese gamblers have traditionally made up the majority of visitors to Macau, which has eased rules for mainland tour groups.
But inconsistent changes to quarantine restrictions have slowed tourism.
The city logged around 4.3 million tourists for the first three quarters of this year, a fraction of the tens of millions that came before the pandemic.
“Operators that rely solely or heavily on Macau will continue to be more affected by the timing of visitors returning than ones that have more significant exposure outside Macau,” said Gloria Tsuen, vice-president and senior credit officer at Moody’s Investors Service.
“Our assumption remains that there will be a much more significant recovery in mass market gross gaming revenue in 2023 than in 2022 as pandemic-related restrictions ease.
“But the fact that the outlook on our rated issuers remains negative reflects continued concerns on the pace and extent of recovery.”