Benchmark Brent crude futures traded down 1.6% to US$42.62 a barrel at 9.05am on Thursday as new restrictions to stem a second surge in infections increased uncertainty over the outlook for economic growth and a recovery in fuel demand.

Speaking at the Energy Intelligence Forum, Vitol chief executive Russell Hardy said he saw oil prices at US$55 per barrel in October 2021, Trafigura’s Jeremy Weir thought oil would be trading at US$52 per barrel and Gunvor’s Torbjorn Tornqvist saw prices at US$50.

They also said that demand in Europe and the US was probably past its peak though they saw very robust demand for oil and other commodities from China, whose economy appeared to have emerged strongly from the pandemic crisis.

Hardy said demand recovery in the northern hemisphere, in Europe and the US, would be tricky and slow at least until the second quarter of 2021, when a possible anti-Covid vaccine could be found.

However, he said in Asia demand would likely grow above pre-pandemic levels by the end of this year, except for jet fuel, which will continue to suffer for most of next year.

Hardy also said massive under-investments in oil production will probably lead to a new oil price spike in three to five years.

“It is not a bad tactical time to invest in upstream,” said Hardy. Vitol has previously announced it could invest in US oil producers.