Bond traders raise questions over India’s tax revenue forecasts

Bond traders raise questions over India’s tax revenue forecasts

A note of caution is creeping in among bond traders over India’s latest budget.

Men look up at an electronic ticker board that indicates stock figures at the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) in Mumbai, India. (Bloomberg pic)
MUMBAI:
A note of caution is creeping in among bond traders over India’s latest budget.

While the debt market has rallied for three days after the government trimmed its fiscal deficit target and announced plans for a global bond sale, IDFC Bank Ltd and Quantum Advisors say the revenue projections in the budget are too optimistic given slowing economic growth.

For instance, gross tax collections will have to increase by more than 18% to meet the current year’s target, compared with a provisional 8.4% expansion achieved in the fiscal year ended March, according to a note from IDFC Bank.

Moody’s Investors Service has also flagged its scepticism after the government trimmed its fiscal gap target to 3.3% of gross domestic product from the 3.4% set in February’s interim plan.

While it’s a relief the government didn’t add to local borrowing plans, “what remains under question is how will they meet the tax and non-tax revenue targets, said Arvind Chari, head of fixed income & alternatives at Quantum Advisors in Mumbai.

“The bond markets should thus remain sceptical on this issue.”

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government also overestimated revenues for the last fiscal year. His administration has pledged to narrow the deficit by increasing taxes on the wealthy, raising duties on gold and gasoline, extracting higher dividends from the central bank and boosting income from asset sales.

All the numbers in the current budget are realistic and achievable, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said Saturday.

In spite of the scepticism, the yield on benchmark 10-year bonds declined 13 basis points on Monday to 6.57%, the lowest since September 2017, as traders cheered the government’s plan to raise as much as US$10 billion in a global debt sale.

Yields have dropped more than 100 basis points from a high in January after the central bank cut rates and bought debt.

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