A US$25 increase would be about 13% above Apple’s closing price of US$194.15 a share on Thursday and would take its market value back into 13 figures.

Apple in August became the first US company with a U$1 trillion value, though it’s been below that since November.

Apple shares were down 1% at 4:12 am in New York trading before US exchanges open.

A US-China deal “would take away the primary China risk which is a dark cloud over the stock now,” Ives wrote in a note.

Investors now are pricing in a harsher impact on Apple than Ives sees playing out based on how the situation stands today, “despite the noise.”

Ives also said the risk-reward on Apple remains compelling at the current price and that the company is the safest among FAANG stocks from any antitrust threats.

However, should the US go down the route of slapping more damaging tariffs on Chinese goods, this could be a “potential game changer” for Apple on the cost of producing iPhones, Ives said, since it would only be able to move a limited amount of production out of China over the next year.

A resolution of the trade spat at the Group of 20 meeting in Japan at the end of the month could add US$20 to US$25 per share for Apple in coming months, he said.