The lender, which has come under pressure from an activist investor to shrink its trading business, has lost about 17% of its market value this year as Brexit-related fears weigh on UK banks. That’s pushed it down to the bottom of the blue-chip European benchmark, which is followed by tracker funds, and would make it the first to exit when a new member joins.

And German industrial gas giant Linde is the company poised to take its place, according to calculations by Landesbank Baden-Wuerttemberg’s index analyst, Frank Klumpp.

“There is nothing in the way for Linde to enter the index,” Klumpp said in a note on Thursday. In fact the company, which is merging with Praxair Inc., would need to lose more than 20 billion euros (US$23 billion) of value relative to the other index members to miss out.

Inclusion in widely-tracked indexes is crucial for companies as the market is increasingly dominated by passive investment funds. Such funds accounted for 30% of all Europe-focused equity investment funds at the end of 2017, according to the Bank for International Settlements. Expulsion from the Stoxx Europe 50 index would force exchange-traded funds tracking the index to sell the stock as they realign portfolios to include the index’s new constituents.

Barclays’s free-float adjusted market value is 1 billion euros less than Italy’s Intesa Sanpaolo SpA, the second-smallest in the index. Switzerland’s ABB Ltd. and Spain’s Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA are also potential drop-out candidates.

“We expect a close race until the stock performance on Nov. 30 will provide a final decision about who has to go,” Commerzbank AG index analysts including Achim Matzke wrote in a note on Monday.

The Stoxx Europe 50 Index lists blue-chip stocks from across Europe, including the UK. The Index provider will announce its changes to the gauge on Dec. 3 after the market closes. Stoxx declined to comment on any potential changes, while Barclays didn’t respond to requests for comment.