
The franc, Danish krone, and Swedish krona are likely to be the worst-affected given that they represent small and open economies even though the nations’ direct trade exposure to China is relatively low, according to Danske Bank A/S. Hungary’s forint also looks “particularly vulnerable” given its high sensitivity to metal prices.
“The Scandinavian currencies are vulnerable to an escalation of the trade war mostly because they are small, open economies, and in Denmark’s case, dependent on global shipping activity,” Danske’s Jens Nærvig Pedersen said. The Swiss franc “also scores high due to the fact that it is a small, open economy, but also with relatively high exposure to the Chinese economy.”
The US introduced a first round of 25% tariffs on Chinese goods earlier this month and has since announced plans to impose a 10% tariff on consumer products. With China expected to retaliate, the euro and pound could show some resilience to trade tensions, says Danske Bank, due to their larger and less open economies.
The yen and US dollar are among the “least exposed” currencies for these reasons also, coupled with their low correlation to metal prices, the Danske analysts wrote.